America, Stop Moving South
There is no good reason to move to climate-vulnerable places.
On June 17th, 2021, it was 118°F in Phoenix, Arizona — a temperature best described as “scorched earth” or “smote down from God” hot.
Phoenix’s record-breaking temperature comes hot off a trail of six, 110°F and higher days — a reality almost as disturbing as the fact that Phoenix is one of our nation’s fastest-growing cities.
It’s one thing to retire to the South or West. It’s another for millennials to move there in 2021.
How did we become so divorced from reality?
Many of the Fastest Growing U.S. Cities Will Be Most Impacted by Climate Change
Miami, Phoenix, Las Vegas, and to a lesser degree Austin and Salt Lake City, have one big thing in common: From a human survival standpoint, they’re terrible bets.
- Miami is one of the worst-positioned cities with regard to climate change — and the rising seas and heat that come with it. Miami is already the hottest major city in the U.S. year-round.
- Phoenix, located in the same spot where the Hohokam people died from drought (and named for the city’s hubristic ability to rebuild itself), is the hottest U.S. city in the summer. Average (not high) June, July, and August temperatures hover around 103, 106, and 104°F, respectively.
- Typically a few degrees behind Phoenix, Las Vegas is one of the hottest cities in the U.S. and depends on water from Lake Mead, a man-made water supply currently at its lowest level since the 1930s.
- Though less ticking time bomb and more slow burn, Austin — the fastest growing city in America in 2020— sources 100% of its water from the Colorado River, a stressed water source that supplies a fast-growing population currently around 40 million people. Austin is also the continental U.S.’s southernmost capital.
- Salt Lake City, another fast-growing Western city, also finds itself at the heart of the West’s 2021 drought. Salt Lake City has one of the highest birth rates in the U.S. and is increasingly attracting a tech-focused crowd.
Domestic Climate Migration Is Coming for Us
Drought and heat are largely perceived as ephemeral future inconveniences rather than everyday realities. Few Americans go thirsty or hungry compared to other arid regions around the world.
But make no mistake: domestic climate migration will occur in millennials’ lifetimes.
By the time I am in my 50s, these places will all be hotter, have more frequent droughts, more strained resources, higher crime rates, and lower economic output.
Phoenix’s Future
In the upcoming decades, the chances of an extreme heatwave in Phoenix will become increasingly likely. In such an event, water, transportation, and energy infrastructure would crumble, creating the “Hurricane Katrina of Heat.”
- The risk of drought will triple by 2050. Note that Phoenix is already a desert with an average rainfall of 9.2 inches a year.
- There will be 115 days per year with a high potential for fires by 2050.
Miami’s Future
Miami is considered the most vulnerable coastal city in the world. What was once called “100-year floods” could occur regularly — meaning every couple of years.
- Miami is predicted to see 6 inches of sea-level rise by 2030 and 2 ft by 2060.
- Miami, which is built on silt, is also sinking into the sea. When sea levels rise, saltwater also infiltrates water supplies and septic systems.
- Miami, already the warmest city in the U.S. year-round, has warmed over 2.3°F since 1970. By 2050, expect 151 days/year to feel like 105°F or higher.
Neither Miami, Phoenix nor any Southern or Western city will be abandoned overnight. Instead, growing heat will hurt economies, increase crime, and lower quality of life until people — slowly and then all at once — start to leave.
Americans Have Options. So Why Do They Go West and South?
Unlike South Africa, which has experienced country-wide drought for the past three years, America has many places with excess water.
Americans have options — but they choose to put themselves at risk for climate change?
Much of it comes down to successful marketing.
Excellent, City-Specific Marketing Campaigns
It’s no coincidence that the cities with the most tantalizing marketing campaigns have the worst long-term climate outlooks.
Phoenix and Miami have to get creative if they’re going to attract millennials to places that will be decidedly less pleasant in 20 years.
With self-preservation (and real estate prices) in mind, these places have thought of some pretty compelling narratives to get you and me to move there against our better judgment.
- Phoenix has pitched itself as the West’s affordable, sunny millennial city that’s cleaner and more conservative (think: fewer homeless people) than San Francisco and Los Angeles. A person from San Francisco who rents a one-bedroom in San Fran can buy a house in Phoenix — or so the narrative goes.
- Miami is the crypto, tech hub of the future if you can forget that Miami is sinking and will not have much of a future. Miami is Wall Street South: New York with better weather, prices, and color.
- Austin is a version of Texas palatable enough for Californian migrants. The weather is sunny; the people are liberal; the tacos are great.
- Las Vegas is California without income taxes, great restaurants, and cheap enough for you to afford a house, rather than an apartment. It’s also right next door.
These cities are seen as such thanks to well-crafted marketing strategies.
Just like Las Vegas created the “sin city” brand and the New York State Department of Economic Development owns the “I Love New York” slogan, Austin = big tech and Miami = crypto thanks to marketing dollars.
One of the silver linings of excellent P.R. campaigns from climate insecure locations is that they’ve done their research: Northern cities should follow Miami and Phoenix’s examples to become desirable millennial and tech hot spots.
The Solution: More Affordable Housing and Better P.R. in the North
Though much of Miami/Austin/Phoenix/Las Vegas’ appeal is cultural, one fact does set them apart: They are notably cheaper than the larger cities to which they oppose themselves.
Miami is cheaper than New York.
Phoenix and Las Vegas are cheaper than Los Angeles.
Austin is cheaper than San Francisco.
Though real estate investment groups are often blamed for the lack of affordable housing, the real problem is restrictive building laws — especially in desirable, liberal, and highly regulated cities.
The above-listed places are cheap because they have lots of land and few regulations (to a fault, considering the aftermath of the Texas storm). By contrast, California is estimated to need 3.5 million additional homes by 2025.
For the climate-friendly but less glamorous northern cities like Albany, Worcester, and Pittsburgh, a successful marketing campaign could make them the climate-proof cities of the future. For New York, Boston, and Seattle, continuing to build affordable housing will be critical to attracting young people.
Neither affordable nor climate change-resistant, Los Angeles and San Francisco are far from millennial-friendly.
Climate Migration Will Affect All of Us
People moving West and South will affect your life, too — even if you live in Minnesota or Maine.
Within my lifetime, we will see a mass migration from the South and West toward the North, not because these places will become unlivable hellholes overnight. Rather, the descent into heat-fueled economic uncertainty and discomfort will be slow — then all at once.
Even if you are among the climate savvy who lives in a place with fresh water and liveable temperatures, you’ll bear the cost of climate migration, too. For one, before people move North and inland, the federal government will subsidize living in these danger zones for as long as possible.
The federal government has already agreed to help subsidize a $6 billion sea wall to help protect high-rise waterfront condos in Miami.
Before you move South or West, consider the forces propelling you to do so — and the cost to you and your country of migrating later in life.
Thank you for reading.
You can also inspire others to experience the beauty of this lovely planet.
Just click the below image and be a writer for The Environment
